Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 22.840273 24.865977 27.056042 29.611253 32.525251 35.762299 39.654529
2025-12-07 19.631357 22.411429 25.633420 29.690009 34.728589 40.874342 49.087729
2025-12-14 17.500192 20.672179 24.540531 29.701994 36.563750 45.613279 58.893022
2025-12-21 16.337438 19.852671 24.327508 30.607014 39.481914 52.077356 72.353929
2025-12-28 14.971600 18.571788 23.302014 30.197931 40.419954 55.813341 82.618529
2026-01-04 13.989510 17.669247 22.640992 30.142677 41.764028 60.283758 95.160087
2026-01-11 13.262972 17.028416 22.248055 30.381171 43.523859 65.670875 110.885359
2026-01-18 12.477053 16.229646 21.539523 30.033061 44.249058 69.378067 124.516328
2026-01-25 11.870695 15.632942 21.061960 29.969384 45.404126 74.041014 141.840321
2026-02-01 11.351786 15.120691 20.659139 29.965558 46.635873 79.071589 162.084632
2026-02-08 10.871520 14.629652 20.243716 29.885348 47.697795 83.964177 184.260323
2026-02-15 10.434493 14.173352 19.843633 29.781626 48.685706 88.903427 209.186409
2026-02-22 9.995815 13.703239 19.410738 29.619914 49.626666 94.188154 239.352731
2026-03-01 9.646663 13.352327 19.147457 29.739910 51.175021 101.403764 282.132240
2026-03-08 9.308052 12.997020 18.849705 29.763910 52.528742 108.559752 331.724485
2026-03-15 9.157039 12.927643 19.019665 30.675274 55.964728 122.458300 428.910578
2026-03-22 8.790054 12.489469 18.530583 30.265927 56.341536 127.769933 490.392683
2026-03-29 8.509579 12.176928 18.236905 30.210796 57.543703 136.061826 585.005621
2026-04-05 8.295664 11.961869 18.098043 30.450148 59.503653 147.616702 730.404309
2026-04-12 8.007474 11.608911 17.691778 30.100938 59.930835 154.130034 854.099368
2026-04-19 7.780140 11.347254 17.433557 30.037063 61.093277 163.888337 1047.175328
2026-04-26 7.575632 11.114519 17.213501 30.033227 62.421851 174.981226 1313.871025
2026-05-03 7.373126 10.875986 16.968603 29.952759 63.533082 185.821012 1654.409185